During the 2016 International Estado Futuro Conference in Santiago de Chile, I had an experience that illustrates why writing about Latin America — let alone its future — can feel intimidating. After a full day of talks, workshops, and panels on the region, there was a small social gathering for participants to get to know one another. First, I joined a very enthusiastic group that was discussing achievements in basic education coverage, numerous innovation and entrepreneurial initiatives, advances in citizen involvement in public policy, and the bright future the region could build if it fostered more collaboration. Soon after, I joined a second group, where the conversation took a completely different turn: the main themes were social and economic inequality, the persistence of corruption and impunity, the growing reach of violence, and public health challenges such as Chikungunya in Brazil and the obesity epidemic in countries like Mexico.
The important thing is that both groups were right. Latin America often presents itself as a continuous stream of tensions in which optimism and pessimism coexist before our eyes, without yielding a complete or unanimous explanation. In fact, the region stands at a turning point. According to the most recent projections of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, “protectionist tendencies emerging in the United States will have global and regional effects; the renegotiation of NAFTA and other trade agreements, as well as uncertainty over the dynamics of monetary transfers from migrants, will have significant effects in particular on Mexico and Central America, which export most of their manufactures and services to the United States.” [1]
The report also offers a more positive perspective, presenting a contrasting forecast for 2017: “Unlike in 2016, when the region contracted by 1.1%, and despite complex external conditions and a number of risks, the region’s economy is expected to switch direction and return to positive growth of 1.3%. As in 2016, the weighted average growth figure masks different growth dynamics between countries and subregions. Central America, including the Spanish-speaking Caribbean and Haiti, is expected to grow by around 3.7% in 2017; including Mexico, with a projected growth rate of 1.9%, brings the average down to 2.3%. Positive growth is projected in 2017 for South America, at 0.9%, and for the English-speaking Caribbean, at 1.3%.” [2]
As this suggests, the region’s future will involve a demanding set of social challenges. Over the next five years, for example, Latin America is likely to face major economic, social, and political changes shaped in part by three factors: the consequences of Trump’s presidency for the political stability of Latin American national governments; the effects of exponential technological growth on the disappearance of low-skilled jobs; and the ongoing effort of governments to rebuild trust with citizens while addressing a long history of economic crisis, corruption, and violence.
Only a few weeks ago, we saw the abrupt cancellation of plans to invest $1.6 billion in a car assembly plant in Mexico, influenced by Trump’s recent pronouncements regarding new taxation policies on Mexican products and his intention to renegotiate United States trade agreements. [3] This event exposed the fragility of one of Mexico’s most important sources of employment: the manufacturing industry. It also highlighted the limited room the Mexican economy has had to diversify its efforts into emerging markets and new geographic areas.
At the same time, it is undeniable that the manufacturing industry is once again going through a technological transformation that will eliminate many low-skilled jobs while creating new ones that require different capabilities. That is why Latin American countries need bold educational programs and stronger efforts to foster creativity and entrepreneurship among their citizens, even as many governments still struggle to fully recognize the relevance of creative economies and industries. These represent a new paradigm of value creation and a different way of approaching employment and opportunity. The region needs to find ways to make education a lifelong habit in order to build stronger capabilities for the future. Such a vision will require courage from public authorities, because it entails looking beyond the development of traditional forms of employment.
Latin America may still be underestimating the impact of exponential technological change, automation, and the growing importance of creativity and entrepreneurship in the twenty-first century, as reflected in the limited resources that national governments allocate to research-based forecasting. This panorama can change if governments recognize the opportunities that technology, together with an interconnected global community, can offer to those willing to prepare their citizens for a new reality. Doing so could have major implications for the socioeconomic future of Latin America, especially from the perspective of long-term sustainable development. Nevertheless, the hesitation of official agencies to study and understand emerging opportunities, along with other structural and implementation problems, puts at risk what could otherwise become an important turning point for the educational system.
Creativity, in the non-romantic sense of the term, is related to the capacity to be resourceful and to strengthen citizens’ resilience. It is not only about having ideas, but about finding new ways to adapt. Perhaps one of the few certainties we can claim about the future is that creativity will matter. As the Creativity vs Robots report from Nesta explains: “Creative occupations are more future-proof to technologies like artificial intelligence, machine learning and mobile robotics.” [4] And according to Nesta’s research on creative occupations and subjective wellbeing, “most creative occupations have higher than average levels of life satisfaction, worthwhileness and happiness than employment in general, although most creative occupations also have higher average levels of anxiety.” [5] Creativity, then, may not only help Latin American citizens remain relevant in new economic trends; it may also contribute to improving quality of life and promoting social integration. These challenges call for a substantial change in education, with inclusivity, creativity, and entrepreneurship at its core. Such a shift could create space for collaboration, allow creative industries to flourish, and open paths toward transdisciplinary hybrids, including new forms of artistic, technological, and scientific research, as well as new products and services.
To move in this direction, Latin America needs a combination of public policies that encourage entrepreneurship, citizens’ willingness and imagination to adapt to a new economy, and an educational strategy focused on providing the tools needed to unlock individual and collective creative potential. This approach could significantly increase the region’s capacity to create value for others both inside and outside its borders. The industries and jobs that can emerge from an economy based on services and intangible value are important for strengthening the sociocultural and economic development of Latin America, and they can complement the manufacturing sector rather than replace it.
In fact, many efforts have already been made to support entrepreneurs, especially in Mexico, Colombia, Argentina, and Chile, where startup communities are growing in terms of venture capital, capabilities, and technology. Nonetheless, these efforts remain concentrated largely in private and public universities, leaving a large part of the population to compete on its own, often with limited technological preparation, in an increasingly demanding environment. Any meaningful support for these efforts depends on the region’s ability to place inclusive technology at the center of the educational system and to transform users and consumers of technology into creators and entrepreneurs. Latin America needs the courage to rethink its basic education curriculum, perhaps around two pillars: the development of personal and attitudinal skills for continuous learning, and the creative use of knowledge needed to develop transdisciplinary, scientific, and technological projects that may evolve into startups and companies.
In any case, the region will need to address difficult questions such as these: how can Latin America collaborate in truly transdisciplinary ways at both the local and global levels in order to create stronger systems that understand sustainability as a collective goal? How can it enable local and global citizens, through more inclusive and participatory forms of citizenship and community-building, to learn how to live together in diverse societies while pursuing peaceful and meaningful lives for all? How can it create inclusive and co-created sustainable systems that generate employment opportunities across the region?
For all of these reasons, the future of Latin America is tied to its capacity to strengthen collaborative engagement at both the national and regional levels. The open participation of governments, the private sector, universities, NGOs, and international stakeholders will be necessary to build a better future for the region. The challenges are considerable. Policies at the state, national, and regional levels must accelerate educational transformation, not only by promoting adaptation to current technologies and learning from existing models, but also by encouraging more creative uses of technology. Governments should make a sustained effort to promote a culture of knowledge-sharing around technological development while building strong networks of trans-sectoral projects that create the infrastructure, interconnectivity, and collaboration mechanisms needed for a more inclusive entrepreneurial environment.
For labor markets, there is also a need for retraining programs that update the skills of the most vulnerable populations and make learning as accessible as possible. Mobile technology, for instance, can help facilitate broad access to knowledge about new technologies, emerging industry skills, and the development of the creative confidence needed to build relevant capabilities. Unfortunately, limited preparation for the future remains a persistent pattern in Latin America. There is a clear need to create permanent research-based forecasting institutions capable of generating regular reflection and interaction around the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. The exchange of information among all relevant stakeholders to construct future scenarios for Latin America is crucial. The region often arrives late to technological trends and capability-building processes, which makes it necessary to develop national and regional programs in which research-based forecasting can support a more integrative and creative educational system — one that promotes the creation of value rather than the pursuit of grades alone.
More broadly, Latin American countries need to see themselves as part of a shared regional bloc by strengthening open systems of cooperation at both the regional and global levels, while preserving the sovereignty and uniqueness of their cultural backgrounds. A combination of creativity, education, and entrepreneurship should be a priority if the region is to maximize the potential of its population and build a place in the world as a fertile and collaborative region — one that embraces diversity and builds creative and productive bridges with the world, rather than walls.
Edgar Barroso
Professor at the School of Government at Tecnológico de Monterrey
Director of the Laboratory for Entrepreneurship and Transformation
@edgarbarroso
edgarbarroso@itesm.mx
[1] Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean. Annual Report. Economic Development Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). Santiago, 2016, p. 15.
[2] Ibid., p. 10.
[3] “From this moment on, it’s going to be America First. Every decision on trade, on taxes, on immigration, on foreign affairs, will be made to benefit American workers and American families. We must protect our borders from the ravages of other countries making our products, stealing our companies, and destroying our jobs. Protection will lead to great prosperity and strength.” D. Trump.
[4] Bakhshi, Hasan; Frey, Carl Benedikt; Osborne, Michael. Creativity vs Robots: The Creative Economy and the Future of Employment. Nesta. London, 2015, p. 6.
[5] Fujiwara, Daniel; Dolan, Paul; Lawton, Ricky. Creative Occupations and Subjective Wellbeing. Nesta Working Paper No. 15/09. London, p. 2.
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